In the theoretical experiment a cat is put in a steel chamber, along with the following device (which must be secured against direct interference by the cat): in a Geiger counter, there is a tiny bit of radioactive substance, so small that perhaps in the course of the hour, one of the atoms decays, but also, with equal probability, perhaps none. If an atom does decay, the Geiger counter tube discharges, and through a relay releases a hammer that shatters a small flask of hydrocyanic acid which kills the cat. If no atom decays before the chamber is opened the cat will be alive.
Schrodinger’s point was that according to Quantum theory, the cat is both alive and dead until the chamber is opened. The problem he was trying to address is in many ways very similar to the problem facing all concerned with identifying the available wood fuel supply. If the cat represents standing timber then it is clear that the timber can exist in all states (ie be theoretically available to all timber markets) until the market (the radioactive material) indicates that it wants it in one particular form (wood fuel) or another (traditional timber markets) and jolts the landowner (the hydrocyanic acid) into making a decision, at which point the availability or otherwise of wood fuel is known for the first time.
In practice the difficulties facing the wood fuel supplier include a further layer of uncertainty as the jolt (ie the economic incentive) to the landowner may not be sufficient to bring the timber to market at all.
These uncertainties are a poor foundation both for timber processing industries with long investment payback periods, and for a secure energy supply. At one time nationalised industries were seen as a mechanism for coping with the vagaries of the market but more recently a free market has been seen as more efficient. In the forestry sector this has resulted in a switch from reliance on state sector timber and long term supply guarantees to reliance on private sector timber with availability subject to market conditions.
Unfortunately forestry does not operate in a free market, and while related land uses such as agriculture are subsidised it never will.The long term sustainability of the sector will require a re-examination of the incentives and regulations affecting the industry to ensure that they encourage desirable market behaviour. There are two or three levers that might be used to good effect concerning availability of timber in general and wood fuel in particular:
• A requirement for a forest management plan with predicted harvesting dates to accompany all grant applications;
• A copy of harvester data logs to be sent to FCS as part of Felling License requirements, facilitating creation of a stem data base, allowing use of cost effective predictive models for production forecasting; and,
• Establishment of “sustainability” limits on timber transport to both make timber movements easier to predict and map, and to ensure the primacy of local rather than wider markets.
